Research notes · September 1, 2026

Nine research notes from seven publishers: Dell and Palo Alto beat, MongoDB misses the buy-side bar, and a stack of sell-side rating changes

On 2026-09-01 the fourteen paid research publishers tracked here published nine pieces. Two were earnings reactions (TMT Breakout on Dell, Palo Alto Networks and MongoDB), two were deep dives on AI optical interconnect (FundaAI on Marvell, Damnang on the AI infrastructure stack), one was a stock addition (AlphaPick added PBF Energy to its portfolio), one was a macro liquidity update (Capital Wars), one covered Korea's sovereign AI build-out (SemiAnalysis), and one was a trading recap (James Bulltard). Every statement below is attributed to the publisher that made it, with the publisher's own numbers. Quant Data did not verify these numbers and takes no view on them; where a ticker has a max pain page on this site, the settled options positioning for the same date is shown alongside.

What was published

"Points extracted" counts the discrete claims (numbers, theses, risks, catalysts, falsification points) pulled from each piece during ingestion. It measures how much a piece asserts, not how good it is.

What each piece said

Directional statements on the record

Each row is a dated fact: a named source expressed a direction on a named ticker. Where a publisher was relaying a broker's rating change, the originating voice is in the "via" column. None of this is a recommendation from Quant Data.

Numbers the publishers put on the record

• TMT Breakout · DELL: AI server revenue guided to $74B; TMT Breakout puts the buy-side bar at $70B and the sell-side consensus in the mid-$60Bs.
• TMT Breakout · PANW: Next-generation security ARR up 63% year over year against a 59-60% guide; net new ARR about $970M.
• TMT Breakout · MDB: Atlas growth 29% year over year against an implicit buy-side bar of 30%+; shares down about 13% after the print.
• TMT Breakout: Futures pricing about a 70% probability of a September hike, with 40 bp priced versus 25 bp previously, per TMT Breakout.
• FundaAI · SNOW: Forecast fiscal 2Q26 revenue growth of 35% year over year, 4 points above guidance; Cortex Code customer penetration 45%, up from 25%.
• FundaAI · MRVL: Nvidia invested $2B each in Lumentum and Coherent in March 2026; Marvell paid about $3.25B for Celestial AI; the Google-Marvell warrant has a theoretical revenue ceiling of $120B.
• Damnang: Combined 2026 capex of the four largest hyperscalers above $700B; large-transformer lead times above 160 weeks in 2026 versus about 140 in 2023.
• SemiAnalysis · 000660.KS: 2027 HBM4 pricing to Nvidia: SK Hynix about +70% year over year, Samsung +98%, Micron +89%. Korea's data-center plan: $919B, 8.4 GW by 2029, 18.4 GW by 2035.
• AlphaPick · PBF: Q2 adjusted EPS $6.22, adjusted EBITDA $1.24B; ten upward and zero downward FY1 revisions in 90 days; trailing P/E 62% below the energy sector median.
• Capital Wars: Global liquidity $194.9 trillion, 3-month annualized growth 1.8%; shadow monetary base $109.9 trillion, 3-month annualized -1.1%; MOVE index 70.
• James Bulltard · SPY: First close below the 21-day EMA in about a month; VIX still below 16.

Reproduced as stated by each publisher. Not verified by Quant Data.

What would prove them wrong

Several publishers name the observation that would falsify their own view. Those are the most useful sentences in any research note, so they are collected here.

• TMT Breakout · MDB: Whether MongoDB's Q3 Atlas growth guide is at or above 27%.
• FundaAI · SNOW: Whether reported 2Q26 growth lands at or above 35%; if it comes in clearly below the 35-36% range, FundaAI says the flywheel thesis needs re-examination.
• FundaAI · NVDA: Whether Rubin Ultra ships with the announced 1 TB of HBM4E per package or a reported 192-256 GB configuration; the lower figure would, in FundaAI's reading, confirm local HBM limits and pull pooled memory forward.
• Damnang: If the major hyperscalers cut capex guidance in two consecutive quarters, the demand map has to be redrawn before the supply map.
• Capital Wars: A MOVE index break above 80, or a Treasury shift away from long-bond purchases, would mark rising volatility and tightening collateral multipliers.
• TMT Breakout · TTWO: If Rockstar has not announced a GTA VI Online strategy by the end of October, StoneX says it turns more cautious.

Where Quant Data's own data touches the same tickers

For tickers named above that have a stock page on this site, the settled options positioning from the same period. These are Quant Data's computations from end-of-day open interest, dated to the settlement shown, and are unrelated to what any publisher said.

Common questions

Sources: paid research publishers accessed through the GeoScope aggregator under a licence that permits redistribution. Statements and figures are attributed to their publishers and reproduced as stated; Quant Data has not verified them and expresses no view on them. Educational only: not investment advice, not a recommendation, not a forecast.