Research notes · September 6, 2026
Four notes, four publishers: Irrational Analysis dismantles the HBM supercycle thesis, Simon's Substack ranks silver juniors, Macro Charts flags a positioning minefield, Capital Wars probes Bitcoin's liquidity ties
On 2026-09-06 four publishers each put out one piece: Irrational Analysis, an anonymous semiconductor engineer/investor, filed an 11,700-word Hot Chips 2026 recap covering memory, disaggregated inference and CPU architecture; Simon's Substack screened ten silver and silver-lead-zinc mining juniors by chart strength and revenue purity; Macro Charts mapped crowded positioning across equities, rates and commodities ahead of a dense September macro calendar; and Capital Wars examined whether Bitcoin's price correlates with Treasury and PBoC liquidity measures. Every statement below is attributed to the publisher that made it, using the publisher's own numbers and framing. Quant Data did not verify any of these claims and takes no view on them.
What was published
| Publisher | Ticker | Title | Points extracted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Wars | — | Bitcoin’s Liquidity Paradoxes | 9 |
| Irrational Analysis | NVDA | Hot Chips 2026: Irrational Recap | 29 |
| Macro Charts | macro | STRAP YOURSELF IN... | 16 |
| Simon's Substack | AG | Silver Miner Charts of Interest (4) | 15 |
"Points extracted" counts the discrete claims (numbers, theses, risks, catalysts, falsification points) pulled from each piece during ingestion. It measures how much a piece asserts, not how good it is.
What each piece said
Capital Wars — Bitcoin’s Liquidity Paradoxes
Capital Wars argues Bitcoin may carry 'real asset' features rather than being purely financial, citing a close relationship between Treasury QE (leading BTC price by 6 months) and PBoC liquidity (leading by 3 months) using its own 60% BTC/30% ETH/10% SOL basket. It separately notes gold correlates more with Chinese liquidity than with Treasury QE. The author twice states the evidence is limited and far from conclusive, and gives no correlation coefficients, sample sizes, or hedging implications if the thesis is wrong.
Irrational Analysis · NVDA — Hot Chips 2026: Irrational Recap
Irrational Analysis reports that DRAM makers pushing gross margins above 80% has triggered customer demand for de-specced HBM (12-hi toward 8-hi/4-hi), which it says invalidates the hybrid-bonding capex story; the author liquidated BESI entirely on this view. It flags electromigration risk in D-Matrix's Raptor 3D-DRAM chip (95C operating point vs. an 80-85C DRAM safety ceiling, pending HTOL testing), calls multi-vendor disaggregated inference a temporary structure rather than a durable one, and reads OpenAI's Jalapeno chip's 25% perf/watt jump plus engineer departures as red flags, not progress. The author remains long Samsung and Nvidia-ecosystem exposure but reports the portfolio is only 0.34% ahead of the SMH benchmark against a 30% full-year goal.
Macro Charts — STRAP YOURSELF IN...
Macro Charts reports CFTC positioning data showing S&P futures at the 92nd percentile long, the dollar also near 92nd percentile long, and SOFR at a record short, alongside Nasdaq crowded-long and Russell near record-short readings, heading into a September 10-18 run of PPI, CPI, FOMC and BOJ events. It flags SPY gaps at $765/$757 and a QQQ gap at $730 (NDX 30,000), the S&P's 27-session streak without a 1%-down day, and says it favors gold, silver, GDX and Bitcoin over crowded industrial-metals and equity-index longs, urging discipline over conviction into the event risk.
Simon's Substack · AG — Silver Miner Charts of Interest (4)
Simon's Substack, an anonymous mining-stock blogger, screens ten silver and base-metal juniors against the SILJ benchmark and each company's silver revenue share (using $100 silver/$5,000 gold assumptions). It names BOAB Metals and Unico Silver as its two favorites for this piece, stays constructive on First Majestic despite a 58% silver-revenue share, and rejects near-pure-silver Kootenay Silver outright for underperforming the metal by about 100% on weak charts. The author discloses a large existing Argentina-linked position (ABRA) that constrains further regional exposure.
Directional statements on the record
Each row is a dated fact: a named source expressed a direction on a named ticker. Where a publisher was relaying a broker's rating change, the originating voice is in the "via" column. None of this is a recommendation from Quant Data.
| Publisher | Via | Ticker | Stance | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irrational Analysis | author's own account | BESI | Bearish | Liquidated the entire BESI position, saying HBM de-spec trends toward 8-hi and lower configurations undercut the hybrid-bonding demand case, and reallocated mostly into EU and Japan optics names. |
| Irrational Analysis | author's own account | NVDA | Bullish | Maintains the view that Nvidia's ecosystem dominance is intact — CoWoS/HBM largely locked up, the Groq-based disaggregated-inference rack product shipped in 8 months, and Vera/Rubin/BlueField/Spectrum-X show real technical progress — though the author's broader portfolio (long-only, includes implicit Nvidia-ecosystem exposure) is only 0.34% ahead of the SMH benchmark against a 30% target. |
| Simon's Substack | author's own account | BML | Bullish | Names BOAB Metals one of the piece's two favorites: an Australian lead-silver developer expected in production by Q1 2028, a point at which the author assumes silver will be in a $200-300 zone, making lead cover costs and silver largely pure profit. |
| Simon's Substack | author's own account | USL | Bullish | Names Unico Silver the other of the piece's two favorites, citing a cup-and-handle chart pattern and roughly 185 million ounces of silver plus about 1 million ounces of gold in resources, despite the project still being in development. |
| Simon's Substack | author's own account | AG | Bullish | Stays constructive on First Majestic long term as decent silver exposure with a solid chart, despite flagging that only 58% of its revenue is silver and citing market-cap size as a lingering reservation. |
| Simon's Substack | author's own account | KTN | Bearish | Rejects Kootenay Silver from the shortlist despite it being a near-pure silver play, citing a weak chart and roughly 100% underperformance versus the silver price. |
| Macro Charts | author's own account | GDX | Bullish | Remains 'laser-focused' and positioned long GDX, looking for a breakout above the 20-day moving average toward a $107-115 target zone as part of a preferred gold/silver/miners trade over crowded industrial-metal longs. |
| Macro Charts | author's own account | BTC | Bullish | Says Bitcoin may have started a new bull market following a 2023-like sequence, with room to test the May high, and could be 'THE leader' of the next rally phase. |
| Macro Charts | author's own account | DXY | Bearish | Frames a Dollar Index test of $100 as an extremely asymmetric short setup, and says failure of the current bounce could break the dollar's long-term channel toward significantly lower targets. |
| Capital Wars | author's own account | BTC | Neutral | Raises, without committing to, a tentative case that Treasury-QE dynamics could mark Bitcoin nearer a cycle bottom, while stating the supporting correlation evidence is limited and far from conclusive. |
Numbers the publishers put on the record
- Irrational Analysis: DRAM vendors have pushed gross margins above 80%, which the author says is driving customer pushback toward de-specced HBM.
- Irrational Analysis: D-Matrix's Raptor 3D-DRAM chip targets a 95C operating point versus an 80-85C historical DRAM safety ceiling, to be validated by roughly 1,000-hour HTOL testing.
- Irrational Analysis · NVDA: Nvidia and Groq shipped a rack-scale disaggregated-inference product about 8 months after the December 2025 Groq acquisition.
- Irrational Analysis: OpenAI's Jalapeno chip showed a 25% perf/watt gain from A0 to B0 silicon, which the author calls a red flag rather than a design win.
- Irrational Analysis · NVDA: Author's own iso-power comparison puts AMD Venice's real lead over Nvidia Vera at about 18.5% (1.19x), versus AMD's claimed 3.3x rack-level advantage.
- Irrational Analysis: Author's portfolio is ahead of the SMH benchmark by 0.34% as of 2026-09-05, against a stated goal of beating it by 30%.
- Simon's Substack · AG: First Majestic's silver revenue share is 58%, with 147,000 ounces of gold produced last year; shares are up about 450% versus silver's 318% over the author's reference window.
- Simon's Substack · USL: Unico Silver holds about 185 million ounces of silver and roughly 1 million ounces of gold in resources across Argentina and New South Wales.
- Simon's Substack · TUF: Honey Badger Silver has outperformed the silver price by about 4x on the author's standardized timeframe, with a bull pennant targeting above CAD$1.90.
- Simon's Substack: Author's long-term price targets: silver above $400 (6-7x current) and gold around 3x current levels, used to model each company's silver revenue share.
- Macro Charts: S&P futures positioning is at the 92nd percentile long; SOFR positioning is at an all-time-record short.
- Macro Charts: The S&P has gone 27 trading days without a 1% down day, versus a historical extreme range of 30-40 days.
- Macro Charts: SPY has unfilled gaps at $765 and $757; QQQ has a gap at $730, corresponding to Nasdaq-100 30,000.
- Capital Wars: Capital Wars' crypto basket (BES$) is weighted 60% BTC, 30% ETH, 10% SOL; it models Treasury QE leading BTC price by 6 months and PBoC liquidity leading it by 3 months.
Reproduced as stated by each publisher. Not verified by Quant Data.
What would prove them wrong
Several publishers name the observation that would falsify their own view. Those are the most useful sentences in any research note, so they are collected here.
- Irrational Analysis: D-Matrix's Raptor HTOL test result (pass/fail on electromigration) will confirm or invalidate the viability of 3D-DRAM-stacked AI accelerators generally.
- Irrational Analysis: Whether 8-hi/4-hi HBM configurations materially replace 12-hi+ orders in 2026-2027 would confirm the de-spec/margin-erosion thesis.
- Irrational Analysis: Author's own portfolio return versus the SMH benchmark by the end of Q3 2026 is the stated readout for the underlying stock calls.
- Simon's Substack · BML: Whether silver trades in a $200-300 zone around BOAB Metals' expected Q1 2028 production start, the premise behind the bullish call.
- Simon's Substack · USL: Whether Unico Silver's cup-and-handle chart pattern reaches its marked target area.
- Capital Wars: If Treasury QE keeps rising over the next 6 months but Bitcoin fails to follow, the 'Bitcoin as real asset' thesis is falsified, per the author.
- Capital Wars: If the PBoC-liquidity-to-Bitcoin correlation disappears or reverses out of sample, the author says it would show the relationship was coincidental.
- Macro Charts · SMH: Whether SMH holds the 50-day moving average/downtrend line near $575 this week, per Macro Charts, as a test of the semiconductor tactical-rebound case.
- Macro Charts: Whether DXY tests $100 (confirming the asymmetric short setup) or the current bounce fails and breaks the dollar's long-term channel.
- Macro Charts: Whether the 30-year Treasury yield turns down near 5.20%, which Macro Charts says would relieve pressure on other markets.
Where Quant Data's own data touches the same tickers
For tickers named above that have a stock page on this site, the settled options positioning from the same period. These are Quant Data's computations from end-of-day open interest, dated to the settlement shown, and are unrelated to what any publisher said.
| Ticker | Settled | Front expiry | Max pain | Last price | Put/call OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 2026-09-03 | 2026-09-09 | $222.50 | $230.36 | 0.42 |
| SMH | 2026-09-03 | 2026-09-08 | $550.00 | $573.33 | 5.54 |
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Common questions
What did paid research publishers publish on 2026-09-06?
4 pieces from 4 of the publishers tracked by Quant Data: Capital Wars, Irrational Analysis, Macro Charts, Simon's Substack. Four notes, four publishers: Irrational Analysis dismantles the HBM supercycle thesis, Simon's Substack ranks silver juniors, Macro Charts flags a positioning minefield, Capital Wars probes Bitcoin's liquidity ties.
Are these Quant Data’s numbers?
No. Every figure on this page is attributed to the publisher that stated it and is reproduced as stated. Quant Data did not verify them. The only Quant Data numbers on the page are the counts of pieces and statements, and the settled options positioning shown for tickers that have a max pain page on this site.
Is a "bullish" entry in the statements table a recommendation?
No. The table records that a named source expressed a direction on a named ticker on a dated day, the way a clippings file would. It is not a signal and not advice. It exists so that the statements can be checked against what prices did afterwards.
Sources: paid research publishers accessed through the GeoScope aggregator under a licence that permits redistribution. Statements and figures are attributed to their publishers and reproduced as stated; Quant Data has not verified them and expresses no view on them. Educational only: not investment advice, not a recommendation, not a forecast.