Irrational Analysis
Irrational Analysis published 24 pieces between 2026-04-30 and 2026-09-06, covering 13 tickers. Quant Data extracted 450 discrete claims from them, of which 28 were directional statements on a named ticker. Over the last 30 days it published 5 pieces, about 1.2 a week. These are counts of what was published, not a judgement of it.
Full-history audit result
Irrational Analysis is one of 3 sources (of 79 examined) that passed Quant Data's finance-influencer audit, which backtests every dated directional statement in a source's full archive against QQQ. Over 812 statements on 161 tickers from 2023-08-19 to 2026-07-02, the rule "first bullish statement, then first bearish flip" produced 54 trades with a 59% win rate and a median excess return of 16% over the benchmark. Method, caveats and the failures of other sources are on the audit page; the dated statements are pinned on price charts.
What kind of claims it makes
| Claim type | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|
| numbers on the record | 119 | 26% |
| competitive notes | 77 | 17% |
| risks | 63 | 14% |
| theses | 51 | 11% |
| contrarian points | 37 | 8% |
| directional statements | 28 | 6% |
| falsification points | 26 | 6% |
| catalysts | 25 | 6% |
| omissions flagged | 21 | 5% |
| valuation points | 3 | 1% |
Claim types are assigned during ingestion. "Omissions flagged" counts places where the reader noted a piece gave a view without a target, a timeframe or a falsification condition.
Tickers it writes about most
Each piece is tagged with one primary ticker; passing mentions are not counted.
Most recent pieces
| Date | Ticker | Title |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | NVDA | Hot Chips 2026: Irrational Recap |
| 2026-08-19 | — | Cerebras Supernova 2026: Irrational Recap |
| 2026-08-18 | INTC | Intel CPO Group is Alive? + Very Interesting NVDA/LITE/AEVA Bonus Papers |
| 2026-08-14 | COHR | Coherent Q4 FY26 Earnings |
| 2026-08-12 | LITE | Lumentum Q4 FY26 Earnings |
| 2026-08-09 | LITE | CBRS Update, WOLF/NVTS Lawsuit, HBF Spec Analysis, Aeva WTF, Taalas/AMD, AAOI, TSEM, uLED Jihad |
| 2026-08-05 | AXTI | [Market Memo] Orange Man Attempted Chinese Transceiver Ban |
| 2026-08-01 | — | [Market Memo] A tale of two heroes. |
| 2026-07-30 | QCOM | Preview of a new war between Apple and Qualcomm |
| 2026-07-25 | AEVA | Stranded Indium-Phosphide |
| 2026-07-19 | AEVA | Practical Semiconductor Optical Amplifiers (SOA) |
| 2026-07-12 | LITE | July NPO/CPO Update: Stupidity Singularity |
Days with a written note
- September 6, 2026 — Four notes, four publishers: Irrational Analysis dismantles the HBM supercycle thesis, Simon's Substack ranks silver juniors, Macro Charts flags a positioning minefield, Capital Wars probes Bitcoin's liquidity ties
Counts are computed from Quant Data's ingestion ledger of Irrational Analysis's pieces accessed through the GeoScope aggregator, which licenses redistribution. Titles belong to the publisher. Educational only: not investment advice, not a recommendation.