Research notes · October 13, 2026
Eight research pieces from six publishers: Meta's Muse Wonder returns to the frontier, SK Hynix faces HBM4 defect rumors, global liquidity drops, and Paul Tudor Jones warns of a bearish 2027.
On 2026-10-13, the six paid research publishers tracked by Quant Data released eight pieces. These publications include macro liquidity updates from Capital Wars, technical semiconductor analyses of HBM4 from Damnang, deep dives into Meta's new closed-source AI models from FundaAI, market recaps and options strategy diaries from James Bulltard, portfolio rotation notes from Macro Charts, and comprehensive sector wraps and podcast summaries from TMT Breakout. Every statement and forecast in this digest is attributed directly to its respective publisher. Quant Data has not verified any of these figures or claims and takes no view on the opinions expressed herein.
What was published
| Publisher | Ticker | Title | Points extracted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Wars | macro | Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update | 7 |
| Damnang | — | What Is Happening in HBM4 | 9 |
| FundaAI | META | Research|META: Muse Wonder Returns Meta to the Frontier as Compute Tightens | 8 |
| James Bulltard | macro | 10/13/26 Recap | 8 |
| Macro Charts | macro | Market Update & Signals 10/13/26 | 6 |
| TMT Breakout | — | TMTB EOD Wrap | 10 |
| TMT Breakout | macro | TMTB Morning Wrap | 11 |
| TMT Breakout | DELL | TMTB Podcast Intel: Dell (DELL) CEO on Why AI Isn’t a Bubble, CoreWeave’s (CRWV) Goldberg on Forge and Self-Serve GPUs, Paul Tudor Jones on 2027 Expectations, David Silver on AI Without Human Data | 11 |
"Points extracted" counts the discrete claims (numbers, theses, risks, catalysts, falsification points) pulled from each piece during ingestion. It measures how much a piece asserts, not how good it is.
What each piece said
Capital Wars — Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Capital Wars reports that global liquidity fell for the first time in nearly three months to $196.49 trillion, while the Shadow Monetary Base dropped to a 16-month low of $107.63 trillion. The publisher notes that the collateral multiplier reached a record high of 1.83, and the MOVE index sits at 98.
Damnang — What Is Happening in HBM4
Damnang analyzes rumors surrounding HBM4, noting that SK Hynix's 12-high samples delivered to Nvidia were reportedly judged entirely defective. Damnang estimates that SK Hynix's HBM4 revenue through 2027 could drop to $39.7 billion, down $32.9 billion from its original $72.6 billion plan, as Samsung gains pricing power.
FundaAI · META — Research|META: Muse Wonder Returns Meta to the Frontier as Compute Tightens
FundaAI reports on Meta's release of its closed-source Muse Wonder and Wonder Full models, which have an estimated 3 trillion parameters. FundaAI notes that Meta shelved its $10 billion compute-leasing plan with Anthropic due to its own high training and inference demands, and expects Meta's 2027 capex to rise.
James Bulltard — 10/13/26 Recap
James Bulltard provides a personal trading diary, noting that SPY is flagging above its 8 EMA despite a 5.5% drop in the Kospi. The author reports making no portfolio changes today, but analyzes large-cap option flows in META, OKLO, BABA, SHOP, and FIGS, suggesting specific spread and ratio strategies.
Macro Charts — Market Update & Signals 10/13/26
Macro Charts reports that the KOSPI fell 6%, breaking its 200-day moving average. The publisher notes that a BofA poll shows fund managers are 37% overweight tech, the highest since 2020. Macro Charts is reallocating its JETS exposure to increase healthcare allocation via IHI, keeping net equity exposure unchanged.
TMT Breakout — TMTB EOD Wrap
TMT Breakout reports that QQQ fell 33 basis points, while AMAT dropped 6.7% after its investor day failed to provide a WFE outlook. The publisher notes that the market expects Anthropic's September ARR to land between $78 billion and $80 billion, and highlights AMD raising its 2030 CPU TAM to over $200 billion.
TMT Breakout — TMTB Morning Wrap
TMT Breakout relays several sell-side updates, including HSBC downgrading Adobe to Hold with a $267 price target. The publisher highlights JPMorgan raising its 2026 and 2027 cloud data center capex forecasts to $800 billion and $1.5 trillion, respectively, and notes that Nvidia's China AI-chip market share fell to 34%.
TMT Breakout · DELL — TMTB Podcast Intel: Dell (DELL) CEO on Why AI Isn’t a Bubble, CoreWeave’s (CRWV) Goldberg on Forge and Self-Serve GPUs, Paul Tudor Jones on 2027 Expectations, David Silver on AI Without Human Data
TMT Breakout summarizes recent podcast interviews, highlighting Dell's CEO stating that AI is not a bubble and that memory markets will tighten next year. The publisher also relays Paul Tudor Jones's bearish outlook for 2027, where he expects to short the market due to massive equity supply from AI IPOs.
Directional statements on the record
Each row is a dated fact: a named source expressed a direction on a named ticker. Where a publisher was relaying a broker's rating change, the originating voice is in the "via" column. None of this is a recommendation from Quant Data.
| Publisher | Via | Ticker | Stance | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMT Breakout | HSBC | ADBE | Neutral | Downgraded Adobe to Hold from Buy, price target cut to $267 from $310. |
| TMT Breakout | Pivotal | META | Bullish | Raised price target to $930 from $790, maintaining Buy rating. |
| TMT Breakout | TD Cowen | NET | Bullish | Raised price target to $375 from $355, maintaining Buy rating. |
| TMT Breakout | Needham | S | Bullish | Raised price target to $31 from $26, maintaining Buy rating. |
| TMT Breakout | Evercore ISI | NOW | Bullish | Raised price target to $175 from $160, maintaining Outperform rating. |
| Macro Charts | Macro Charts | JETS | Exited | Reallocated initial JETS exposure to increase healthcare allocation. |
| Macro Charts | Macro Charts | IHI | Bullish | Allocated an initial exposure to IHI (Medical Devices). |
| James Bulltard | author's own account | META | Bullish | Suggests buying February $1080 calls, structuring them as a 1080/1180 bull call spread and selling 510 puts. |
| James Bulltard | author's own account | BABA | Bullish | Suggests selling two February $90 puts and buying one $135 call to build a 2x1 ratio spread for a net credit. |
| James Bulltard | author's own account | SHOP | Bullish | Suggests selling November $175 puts, or more conservatively selling 165 puts. |
| TMT Breakout | Paul Tudor Jones | SPY | Bearish | Expects to be short the market in 2027 due to massive equity supply from AI IPOs and unlocks. |
Numbers the publishers put on the record
- Capital Wars: Global liquidity fell to $196.49 trillion, and the Shadow Monetary Base dropped to $107.63 trillion.
- Capital Wars: The collateral multiplier rose to a record high of 1.83, while the MOVE index sits at 98.
- Damnang · SKHY: SK Hynix's HBM4 revenue through the end of 2027 is estimated at $39.7 billion, a decrease of $32.9 billion from the planned $72.6 billion.
- FundaAI · META: Meta's 2026 capex guidance is $130 billion to $145 billion, and its new Muse Wonder model has an estimated 3 trillion parameters.
- FundaAI · META: Meta paid $14.3 billion for a 49% stake in Scale AI in June 2025.
- Macro Charts: A BofA poll shows fund managers' overweight exposure to tech stocks rose to 37% from 30% last month.
- Macro Charts: US pending home sales plunged 4% in September, hitting near 12-year lows.
- TMT Breakout · AMAT: AMAT shares fell 6.7% after its investor day, where it announced 2030 targets of 54% non-GAAP gross margin and 40% operating margin.
- TMT Breakout · MSFT: JPMorgan raised top-4 CSP data center capex to $800 billion in 2026 and $1.5 trillion in 2027.
- TMT Breakout · AAPL: China smartphone shipments fell 15.4% year-over-year in Q3, with Apple shipments declining 4.3%.
- James Bulltard · SPY: Overnight the Kospi was down 5.5%, while 89% of stocks are down over 10% off their highs from early June.
Reproduced as stated by each publisher. Not verified by Quant Data.
What would prove them wrong
Several publishers name the observation that would falsify their own view. Those are the most useful sentences in any research note, so they are collected here.
Where Quant Data's own data touches the same tickers
For tickers named above that have a stock page on this site, the settled options positioning from the same period. These are Quant Data's computations from end-of-day open interest, dated to the settlement shown, and are unrelated to what any publisher said.
| Ticker | Settled | Front expiry | Max pain | Last price | Put/call OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-30 | $330.00 | $333.69 | 0.53 |
| AMD | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-30 | $580.00 | $633.91 | 1.01 |
| META | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-30 | $705.00 | $728.08 | 1.20 |
| MSFT | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-30 | $485.00 | $517.53 | 0.20 |
| NVDA | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-30 | $225.00 | $233.95 | 0.50 |
| SPY | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-30 | $760.00 | $769.64 | 2.56 |
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Common questions
What did paid research publishers publish on 2026-10-13?
8 pieces from 6 of the publishers tracked by Quant Data: Capital Wars, Damnang, FundaAI, James Bulltard, Macro Charts, TMT Breakout. Eight research pieces from six publishers: Meta's Muse Wonder returns to the frontier, SK Hynix faces HBM4 defect rumors, global liquidity drops, and Paul Tudor Jones warns of a bearish 2027..
Are these Quant Data’s numbers?
No. Every figure on this page is attributed to the publisher that stated it and is reproduced as stated. Quant Data did not verify them. The only Quant Data numbers on the page are the counts of pieces and statements, and the settled options positioning shown for tickers that have a max pain page on this site.
Is a "bullish" entry in the statements table a recommendation?
No. The table records that a named source expressed a direction on a named ticker on a dated day, the way a clippings file would. It is not a signal and not advice. It exists so that the statements can be checked against what prices did afterwards.
Sources: publicly available Substack newsletters that Quant Data accesses through paid subscriptions. Statements and figures are attributed to their publishers and reproduced as stated; Quant Data has not verified them and expresses no view on them. Educational only: not investment advice, not a recommendation, not a forecast.