Research notes · October 24, 2026
Five research pieces from five publishers: Capital Wars warns of a shift to turbulence, Cassandra Unchained compares market internals to 2000, and PhotonCap analyzes quantum foundry economics
On October 24, 2026, the five financial research publishers tracked by Quant Data released five new pieces. These publications include macro liquidity and market structure analyses from Capital Wars and Cassandra Unchained, an engineering-focused semiconductor and AI market memo from Irrational Analysis, a technical trading tool update from James Bulltard, and an in-depth look at the economics of quantum computing foundries from PhotonCap. Every statement and figure presented in these notes is strictly attributed to its respective publisher. Quant Data has not independently verified any of these assertions, holds no editorial positions, and takes no view on the investment theses or market calls detailed herein.
Coverage: this issue uses saved articles only. Upstream completeness and freshness were not checked.
What was published
| Publisher | Ticker | Title | Points extracted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Wars | macro | Phase Shift | 7 |
| Cassandra Unchained | macro | Foundations: The Fate of the S&P 500’s Worst Stocks, the Y2K Analogue, and Time for Small Caps? | 6 |
| Irrational Analysis | macro | [Market Memo] Dancing in the Rain | 8 |
| James Bulltard | — | Discover Tool Update #1 | 5 |
| PhotonCap | GFS | Quantum Foundries: The Revenue Is Small, So Who Pays for the Fabs and Why? | 8 |
"Points extracted" counts the discrete claims (numbers, theses, risks, catalysts, falsification points) pulled from each piece during ingestion. It measures how much a piece asserts, not how good it is.
What each piece said
Capital Wars — Phase Shift
Capital Wars reports that the global liquidity cycle is heading lower after peaking in Q4 2025, with a 44% probability of transitioning into a "Turbulence" regime. The publisher notes that junk bond spreads have widened by over 400bp since April, signaling rising corporate default risk. Capital Wars advises raising portfolio quality, increasing Treasury exposure, and reducing highly leveraged credit and commodities.
Cassandra Unchained — Foundations: The Fate of the S&P 500’s Worst Stocks, the Y2K Analogue, and Time for Small Caps?
Cassandra Unchained compares the S&P 500's October 6, 2026 record high to the March 2000 dot-com peak, noting both represent the thinnest market leadership in 45 years. The publisher reports that 23% of S&P 500 constituents are "busted" (down over 40% from highs). Cassandra Unchained favors high-ROIC, low-multiple busted stocks like LULU and PYPL as hedges against short positions in AI and semiconductors.
Irrational Analysis — [Market Memo] Dancing in the Rain
Irrational Analysis reports that OpenAI and Anthropic are facing private valuation cuts, with Anthropic's IPO target dropping to $1.5T. The publisher highlights "dirty" ARR from model distillation and warns that slow-moving AI drug discovery cannot solve near-term monetization needs. Irrational Analysis remains fully de-leveraged but highlights asymmetric buying opportunities in semiconductor names like AAOI, CRDO, AXTI, and BE during market pullbacks.
James Bulltard — Discover Tool Update #1
James Bulltard announces the first update to the Discover Tool, introducing "Strong recent record" and "Also on the Scanner today" signals to filter high-probability options setups based on 90 days of historical data. The publisher also highlights an unusual pre-close trade in CART that gained over 10% within minutes following a buyout announcement, calling it one of the most egregious trades observed.
PhotonCap · GFS — Quantum Foundries: The Revenue Is Small, So Who Pays for the Fabs and Why?
PhotonCap analyzes the economics of quantum foundries, noting that 68% of the US Commerce Department's $2.013B letters of intent went to IBM and GlobalFoundries. The publisher argues that foundries sell "segregated lines" rather than wafer volume, which remains tiny. PhotonCap views GFS as the cleanest quantum foundry exposure and outlines key upcoming earnings dates to monitor the industry's commercial progress.
Directional statements on the record
Each row is a dated fact: a named source expressed a direction on a named ticker. Where a publisher was relaying a broker's rating change, the originating voice is in the "via" column. None of this is a recommendation from Quant Data.
| Publisher | Via | Ticker | Stance | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassandra Unchained | author's own account | LULU | Bullish | Holds Lululemon (LULU) as a long position purchased deep in its drawdown to hedge against short positions in AI and semiconductors. |
| Cassandra Unchained | author's own account | PYPL | Bullish | Holds PayPal (PYPL) as a long position purchased deep in its drawdown to hedge against short positions in AI and semiconductors. |
| Cassandra Unchained | author's own account | FISV | Bullish | Holds Fiserv (FISV) as a long position purchased deep in its drawdown to hedge against short positions in AI and semiconductors. |
| Cassandra Unchained | author's own account | DECK | Bullish | Holds Deckers (DECK) as a long position purchased deep in its drawdown to hedge against short positions in AI and semiconductors. |
| Cassandra Unchained | author's own account | ZTS | Bullish | Holds Zoetis (ZTS) as a long position purchased deep in its drawdown to hedge against short positions in AI and semiconductors. |
| Cassandra Unchained | author's own account | ADBE | Bullish | Holds Adobe (ADBE) as a long position purchased deep in its drawdown to hedge against short positions in AI and semiconductors. |
| Cassandra Unchained | author's own account | WMT | Bearish | Considering selling, reducing, or donating long-held shares of Walmart (WMT) due to stretched valuations. |
| Cassandra Unchained | author's own account | GOOGL | Bearish | Considering selling, reducing, or donating long-held shares of Alphabet (GOOGL) due to stretched valuations. |
| Cassandra Unchained | author's own account | VLO | Bearish | Considering selling, reducing, or donating long-held shares of Valero (VLO) due to stretched valuations. |
| Cassandra Unchained | author's own account | BBW | Bullish | Views Build-A-Bear (BBW) as attractive at current levels below its IV15. |
| Irrational Analysis | author's own account | AAOI | Bullish | Views Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) as an interesting asymmetric opportunity ahead of a rumored Chinese transceiver ban. |
| Irrational Analysis | author's own account | BE | Bullish | Purchased Bloom Energy (BE) shares with cash after the post-earnings drop and wants to double the position if it falls to around 160. |
| Irrational Analysis | author's own account | AXTI | Bullish | Favors AXTI as a bet on 6-inch InP wafers and wants to add to the position if it drops to March prices. |
| Irrational Analysis | author's own account | CRDO | Bullish | Bullish on Credo (CRDO) following its drop, citing its SerDes and uVCSEL technology potential. |
| PhotonCap | PhotonCap | GFS | Bullish | Identifies GlobalFoundries (GFS) as the cleanest quantum foundry exposure for public-market investors. |
Numbers the publishers put on the record
- Capital Wars: Global Liquidity cycle peaked in Q4 2025 and is estimated to bottom in late 2027.
- Capital Wars: Junk bond CCC-AAA spreads have widened by over 400bp since April 2026.
- Capital Wars: Global Liquidity data assigns a 44% probability to the Turbulence regime.
- Cassandra Unchained: S&P 500 adjusted P/E sits at approximately 32x, compared to 32-34x at the March 2000 peak.
- Cassandra Unchained: At the October 6, 2026 record high, 23% of S&P 500 stocks were busted (down over 40% from highs) with a median decline of 55%.
- Cassandra Unchained: Soft share of S&P 500 leaders (5-10% off their highs) made up 58% of the leadership cohort on October 6, 2026.
- Irrational Analysis: Anthropic's IPO valuation plans have dropped from $2T to $1.5T, with a planned capital raise of $60B to $100B.
- Irrational Analysis: OpenAI is seeking a private funding round at a $1.25T valuation, down from its previous $1.4T target.
- PhotonCap · GFS: The US Commerce Department signed letters of intent worth $2.013 billion with nine quantum companies, with IBM receiving $1 billion and GlobalFoundries receiving $375 million.
- PhotonCap · GFS: GlobalFoundries agreed to issue 9.9 million new shares to the Commerce Department at $37.85 per share, representing a roughly 1.8% equity stake.
- PhotonCap: IonQ's acquisition of SkyWater closed at the end of July 2026 with an equity value of approximately $1.8 billion.
Reproduced as stated by each publisher. Not verified by Quant Data.
What would prove them wrong
Several publishers name the observation that would falsify their own view. Those are the most useful sentences in any research note, so they are collected here.
- PhotonCap · GFS: If GlobalFoundries publicly names a superconducting qubit customer in its Q3 2026 earnings on November 4, 2026, the transition of superconducting lines to neutral lines will occur sooner than expected.
- PhotonCap: If IonQ's Q3 2026 earnings on November 5, 2026 reveal that IonQ's own volume constitutes most of SkyWater's quantum wafers, SkyWater must be read as a captive rather than merchant line.
- PhotonCap: If IBM's Anderon does not disclose any named external customers or deliveries by the end of 2027, the estimate of roughly even odds for naming a customer must be lowered.
- PhotonCap · QBTS: If D-Wave's fiscal 2026 10-K filing in February-March 2027 indicates that D-Wave is leaving SkyWater for Anderon or its own fab, the call that its wafers will stay at SkyWater for two years will be rewritten.
Where Quant Data's own data touches the same tickers
For tickers named above that have a stock page on this site, the settled options positioning from the same period. These are Quant Data's computations from end-of-day open interest, dated to the settlement shown, and are unrelated to what any publisher said.
| Ticker | Settled | Front expiry | Max pain | Last price | Put/call OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-30 | $350.00 | $343.50 | 1.67 |
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Common questions
What did paid research publishers publish on 2026-10-24?
5 pieces from 5 of the publishers tracked by Quant Data: Capital Wars, Cassandra Unchained, Irrational Analysis, James Bulltard, PhotonCap. Five research pieces from five publishers: Capital Wars warns of a shift to turbulence, Cassandra Unchained compares market internals to 2000, and PhotonCap analyzes quantum foundry economics.
Are these Quant Data’s numbers?
No. Every figure on this page is attributed to the publisher that stated it and is reproduced as stated. Quant Data did not verify them. The only Quant Data numbers on the page are the counts of pieces and statements, and the settled options positioning shown for tickers that have a max pain page on this site.
Is a "bullish" entry in the statements table a recommendation?
No. The table records that a named source expressed a direction on a named ticker on a dated day, the way a clippings file would. It is not a signal and not advice. It exists so that the statements can be checked against what prices did afterwards.
Sources: publicly available Substack newsletters that Quant Data accesses through paid subscriptions. Statements and figures are attributed to their publishers and reproduced as stated; Quant Data has not verified them and expresses no view on them. Educational only: not investment advice, not a recommendation, not a forecast.